Using Machine Learning to reshape the Beveridge Curve

Finding a job is one of the most consequential “searches” most of us conduct in a lifetime, and more than half of US employees say they are actively looking for a new job or watching for openings (Gallup, 2017).

Over the years, the mechanics of job search have changed as new technologies have emerged and matured. Yet it is hard to find evidence pointing to an increase in efficiency of matching between jobs and job candidates.

In fact, there is some evidence suggesting that the job market has become less efficient. One of the labor market indicators used by economists is the Beveridge curve [PDF], which shows the relationship between unemployment and the job-vacancy rate. Other things being equal, an increase in unemployment while the vacancy rate drops — meaning more people are looking for jobs even though more jobs are available — suggests a deterioration in the matching/hiring process in the economy — what economists call an “outward shift” in the Beveridge curve. Although the shifts in Beveridge curve during the 21st century are not particularly large by historical standards, directionally the observed shifts suggest that, if anything, job matching in the labor market became less efficient.

There are many plausible explanations for why technological advances do not seem to increase job-market efficiency. One such reason is that as technology makes it easier to apply for jobs, job seekers are likely to increase the number of jobs that they apply to, causing employers to sift through a growing number of applicants who are often a poor fit for the job.

Machine learning goes to work

In 2018 we saw broad adoption of the Google Cloud Talent Solution Jobs Search service by many of the leading talent acquisition and recruitment marketing suites. It aims to increase job market efficiency by powering:

• Job boards such as CareerBuilder.com, CollegeRecruiter.com, GettingHired.com, MidAmerica Careers and WayUp.com
• Recruitment marketing career sites such as those offered by Clinch, Jibe, Ongig, Phenom People, Smashfly, Symphony Talent, Talemetry, TalentNet, Workable, and Yello
• Applicant tracking systems such as iCIMS
• Staffing agencies such as Adecco and Hays

It behaves like a translation engine, using machine learning to match employers’ intent with job seekers’ intent. For employers looking to hire, the API helps surface the most relevant job postings to the job seekers who are best suited for them. Many technologies today make it easier for applicants to cast a wider net, potentially reducing efficiency of matching.

Cloud Talent Solution Job Search improves search relevance to increase the efficiency of job matching while ensuring that job seekers don’t miss out on relevant jobs.

Encouraging results

Cloud Talent Solution Job Search went into general availability in July 2018 at Google Cloud Next — watch the announcement by Geordy Kitchen, Group Product Manager, Cloud Talent Solution.

Since it’s launch the product has served billions of queries for thousands of employers and provided double digit gains in core KPIs such as increasing CTR from search results to job detail, reducing time-to-fill, increasing the quality of applicants to hard to fill roles an so on.

In July we also announced Veteran Search support offering transitioning service personnel from the US armed forces a way to translate their experience so they don’t miss out on great opportunities, and businesses don’t miss out on great candidates.

Next steps

We are delighted Talent Solution Job Search is having a positive impact on hiring metrics for our customers and partners while doing it’s part to improve the matching efficiency in the labor market. In 2019 we’ll be announcing several new major partnerships and integrations in addition to product enhancements that help employers recruit a workforce representative of the customers they serve.

Look out for Cloud Talent Solution Profile Search as it graduates to general availability. Today the service is already powering candidate discovery in Hire — the recruiting add-on for companies that have chosen Google for their productivity suite (email, calendar, docs, drive, sheets, slides etc.), in addition to helping several large employers reduce their time-to-hire and cost-per-hire by rediscovering existing applicants in their talent database.

If you are an employer or work in the talent industry and are interested in better connecting job seekers to the right jobs please do get in touch with the team at cloud-talent-solution@google.com.